Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
