Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
